14.03.2021: In March 2019, during my stint as Editor in Chief of IDEX Magazine, I published a cover story entitled The Iceberg of Diamonds and Climate Change. *
In March 2019, during my stint as Editor in Chief of IDEX Magazine, I published a cover story entitled “The Iceberg of Diamonds and Climate Change.” *
In the article, I compared the diamond industry and its production to an iceberg floating in the “luxury products ocean.” The bulk, roughly 90 percent of the annual 40+ million so carats of the rough diamonds mined and sold to diamond manufacturers, is cut into small and melee stones.
Is the iceberg a good metaphor to describe the diamond industry, I asked?
Yes, it is.
After all, according to the above statistic, nine out of every ten diamonds cut and polished is below 0.10 carats, and just like with a real iceberg, this colossal production remains almost invisible, with the majority, in carat terms, floating below “the surface.” What you do see above the waterline is the diamond jewelry with the larger stones, also called aspirational pieces.
For many, if not for all diamond mining companies, these smaller rough diamonds are their bread and butter. And as we have learned over the past years, a drop in prices of small rough can make or break the business model of these miners.
At the 2019 “Investing in Africa Mining Indaba” in South Africa, Paul Bosma, CEO of the junior diamond mining firm Firestone Diamond, said: “When will the [rough diamond] market recover? We have worked out that we have lost between $15 and $17 a carat because of the drop in the market.”
Bosma went on to say that “…for now, we are OK … not great … but OK. The situation is so sensitive to the diamond price. At $85/carat, our cash position doubles. If the price sticks at $75/carat for another two years, then ourselves, Petra Diamonds, Stornoway, and Mountain Province are all going to be in deep trouble because we all have debt, and we are all just surviving at current prices…”
These diamonds make up the bottom of the iceberg. Each individual diamond is unremarkable and relatively cheap but amassed together, they ARE the diamond industry!
The existential threat of synthetics
Meanwhile, there is another existential threat to the diamond industry. It’s the significant rise in market share of gem-quality synthetic diamonds and the danger they pose to the diamond supply pipeline’s survival.
In their latest report on the global diamond industry (February 2021), AWDC and Bain reported that continued advances in technology contributed to double-digit growth in production and lower retail prices for lab-grown diamonds in 2019 and 2020.
“The price differential between natural and lab-grown fancy color diamonds is particularly striking—up to 10 times. In addition to independent lab-grown manufacturers, major fashion jewelry retailers are adding lab-grown diamonds to their product offerings, further positioning the category into the fashion jewelry segment and making it accessible to a wider range of price-sensitive consumers.”
The report also noted that “consumers across key markets do not see substantial differences in sustainability between lab-grown and natural diamonds. LGDs are edging into the fashion category as interest is rising among price-conscious consumers.”
Note that the report only relates to the consumers’ position on LGDs and does not discuss the challenges LGDs present to the other players in the supply pipeline.
The Diamond Iceberg is in great danger
If this trend continues, and if the industry, particularly the Indian diamond manufacturers, will not end the salting of natural diamonds with synthetics, retailers may very well throw the towel in the ring.
Soon, retailers, too, may not be motivated any longer to differentiate between natural and LGDs. Consequently, they will see no justification in paying more for diamond melee than LGDs of the same weight and size category. Worse, they will stop caring about it.
When the downstream market loses its dependence on natural smaller diamonds, the effect on the entire diamond mining production process will be disastrous. Without its solid base – 90 percent of the annual rough diamond production – to support and balance the diamond iceberg, the whole structure may…